From the Mailbag: "Movie Star Stock Watch" by Fluffhead

Pedro, I wrote a correspondent piece, just for you (or all your readers). Hope you enjoy...

I know this is a movie website, but if you wouldn't mind indulging me for a moment, I'd like to talk about a TV show.

The year was 2004. This show was "Come to Papa," an NBC sitcom burned off late in the season. The show starred comedian Tom Papa as a newspaper writer with dreams of being a comedy writer. Papa, who was discovered by Jerry Seinfeld, adopted his mentor's smug demeanor, but not what made "Seinfeld" funny: Costanza (and also witty writing). Papa's prime-time career and the show, understandably, didn't last. So why talk about it now? It does have to do with one of the show's actors, and no, it wasn't John Salley, who played Papa's mailman and as an actor made a so-so basketball player. No, the actual answer: Steve Carrell.

That's right, the world's worst boss honed his traits playing Papa's crazy editor-in-chief at the newspaper. The material was poor, but Carrell ran with it and stole every scene he was in (much like he did previously, and with little fanfare, on "The Daily Show"). The show was destined for failure, but this guy, I thought, had a future. I thought, I wish I could buy stock in Carrell's career. Sure enough, a year later he popped up as the Michael Scott (he was actually cast in "The Office" before "Come to Papa" even aired), and then made the leap to big screen leading man thanks to the fantastic "The 40-Year-Old Virgin." He got $500,000 for that role; now, in this summer's Evan Almighty, he's making $5 million.

So what scene-stealing actors look like they're ready to bust out of the background and increase their salary ten-fold? Well, with Carrell in mind, here's my first Movie Star Stock Watch: Summer Comedy Edition. These are the actors whose stock I'd buy, hold, or sell if I could.

Buy

• Seth Rogen ("Knocked Up," "Superbad") - "Knocked Up" will be the best comedy of the summer, and Rogen will be a big reason why. Judd Apatow seems intent on giving roles to the stars of his failed TV shows (Jason Segel and Jay Baruchel, at least, pop up in main roles in "Knocked"), and Rogen will be the first "Apatow All Star" to truly benefit. He stole scenes from Carrell in "The 40-Year-Old Virgin" (just like Carrell did from Will Ferrell in "Anchorman"—stealing scenes from a talented comedian is a tell-tale sign that one is poised for big things) and on "Freaks and Geeks." Now he gets the chance to shine on his own. Throw in the fact that he also wrote the hilarious-looking "Superbad" (previous writing credits include "Da Ali G Show" and "Undeclared"), and Rogen looks ready to reach the big time.

• Kevin James ("I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry") - I must admit, this movie intrigues me (Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor credited as screenwriters?) while terrifying me at the same time (Jessica Biel not only as Adam Sandler's love interest—who keep getting younger and more attractive each movie, by the way—but also as a lawyer? This might challenge Denise Richards as a scientist in "The World Is Not Enough" and Tara Reid as a genius anthropologist in "Alone in the Dark" as the most questionable casting decision yet). The one thing I do know is that Sandler can still open a movie, and James should stand to reap the benefits. He's gone about his film career the right way (unlike buddy Ray Romano), taking on supporting roles next to bigger stars (Sandler, Will Smith). Look for him to be the big star, with the big paycheck to match, next time around.
  

• Michael Cera ("Superbad") - An open letter to Michael Cera:

Dear Michael,

So long as you keep playing characters akin to George Michael Bluth, I will personally make sure you are on my "buy stock" list until the end of your acting career, or my blogging career, whichever comes first.

Sincerely,

Ryan "What a fun, sexy time for you" Lane

Hold

• Will Arnett (The Brothers Solomon) - I'm very tempted to write a letter similar to the one above addressed to GOB Bluth, but I'll hold off for now—as it seems like Arnett might not have the ability to play anyone except GOB-like beings (not that there's anything wrong with that). He'll certainly stay in the dysfucntional family vein with "Brothers," but he'll be doing the heavy lifting this time. Arnett's previous flirtation with leading man status ("Let's Go to Prison") didn't end well, but he was the best thing in "Blades of Glory," and the early press on this movie is encouraging. I know I'm pulling for Arnett, I mean, COME ON, how could one not be?

• Andy Samberg ("Hot Rod") - Samberg is teetering between Adam Sandler and Jimmy Fallon territory right now, and the teaser trailer for "Hot Rod" certainly has him leaning toward the latter. I wonder if this might end up being too much too soon for Samberg; still I'm holding out some hope—but it might just be because Samberg is probably Jewish (OK, most of his digital shorts on SNL are pretty funny too).

• David Koechner ("The Comebacks")
  Koechner's a fantastic, versatile comedian who's struck a chord in supporting roles ("Anchorman," "The Office") more so than big ones ("The Naked Trucker and T-Bones Show"). He deserves a hit as a leading man, and "The Comebacks"—a mishmash parody of sports movies—might be it. Movies such as this (the Scary Movie franchise, Epic Movie, Date Movie, etc.) have done surprisingly well, even if most of those didn't open during the competitive summer months. "The Comebacks" shows up right at the end of August, after the glut of blockbuster movies have run their course, so maybe viewers will be looking for something silly and stupid, which this movie, and Koechner, certainly can provide.
  

Sell

• Zach Braff ("The Ex") - The early reviews of "The Fast Track," I mean, "The Ex," are in, and they aren't favorable. After a solid, if overrated, debut with "Garden State," Braff tried to increase his indie cred with "The Last Kiss," which didn't take, and now he tries his hand at broad, Ben Stiller-style comedy, which doesn't seem promising either. Braff's goofy sentimentality never earned him a large audience on TV, so expecting him to be a leading man in movies right away appears foolhardy. Don't expect "The Ex," which went through a name change and dramatic re-marketing after being shelved for awhile, to make things any easier for him. Another season of "Scrubs" might not seem like such a bad idea to him after all.

• Dane Cook ('Good Luck Chuck," "Mr. Brooks") - Rob Schneider has headlined four movies; David Spade, three (the numbers are five and four, if you want to count "The Benchwarmers" for both of them). "Good Luck Chuck" marks number two for Cook, and unless he quickly befriends Adam Sandler, I'm not sure he's going to catch Schneider or Spade. In fact, the only reason why I'd be rooting for Cook to succeed is because of the increasingly omnipresent and enjoyable Dane Cook backlash. I'm mildly intrigued by him playing a dramatic role in the serial killer drama "Mr. Brooks," but only because it means Kevin Costner might kill him.

• Chris Tucker ("Rush Hour 3")
  Three years passed between the making of "Rush Hour" and "Rush Hour 2." It was 6 years between "Rush Hour 2" and "Rush Hour 3." Does that mean it will be 12 years before we have to see Chris Tucker on screen again? Let's hope so.

Thoughts, comments? Whose stock would you buy, hold, or sell if you could?

Fluffhead (a.k.a. Ryan Lane) is a contributing writer who uses his degree in Magazine Journalism from Syracuse University to write things that neither appear in magazines nor have any journalistic merit.